A Perspective from Japan

The China Containment Game: Japan, the U.S., India and Australia Team Up

 

Cultural News, April 2007

 

By Motoaki Kamiura, Military Analyst

Translated by Alan Gleason

 

    In early April the Japanese, U.S. and Indian navies will hold their first joint exercises in the seas off Japan; they are to last about one week. Normally, when countries plan joint military maneuvers for the first time they choose to focus on radio communications and information exchange, declaring that the training is for rescue purposes in the event of shipboard fires, accidents and other maritime disasters.

 

    These announcements are intended to assuage the fears of surrounding nations that the exercises might be for more aggressive military objectives, such as missile launching or submarine chasing. Once the Indian Navy begins participating in joint maneuvers with its Japanese and American counterparts in the Western Pacific, however, no one is likely to be more concerned than the Chinese Navy.

 

    For the past 19 years China’s military budget has grown by over ten percent annually. With that money it has purchased the latest weapons from Russia, conducted “Star Wars” experiments, augmented its submarine fleet and sent it into the Western Pacific, and developed and deployed new fighter aircraft. It has dispatched special troop units to neighboring countries, and the Chinese Army has been engaging in joint anti-terror and anti-guerilla exercises with the armies of Pakistan and Tajikistan.

 

   Thus China’s military might has finally begun looking outward. Picking up on this, the Japanese media have reported that the joint Japan-U.S.-India exercises are a response to China’s forays into the Pacific.

 

   Meanwhile, when Australian Prime Minister John Howard visited Japan in mid-March, the two countries agreed to set up a cabinet-level conference at which their foreign and defense ministers would regularly discuss security measures and diplomatic issues. Also decided was that Japan’s Self-Defense Forces would perform joint exercises with Australian forces.

 

   The Australian government, mindful that this would not be a good time to raise tensions further with the Chinese, has already stated that these cooperative efforts with Japan are not to be construed as a slap at China.

 

    In reality, however, if Chinese military power continues to loom as a growing threat to the rest of Asia, there is no question that this new four-way alliance of Japan, the U.S., India and Australia will take on a confrontational posture vis-à-vis China.

 

   At the moment it is impossible to predict whether the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) will take China’s side or that of the four nations. But in any case, their military tie-up is clearly the opening gambit in a new game. It is also part of America’s long-term strategy to prevent China from replacing it as the world’s top military power.

 

Motoaki Kamiura is a Tokyo-based military analyst. When the world is in crisis, he appears frequently on national television programs.

  

 Alan Gleason is an editor, writer, and Japanese-English translator. He lives in Tokyo.