A Perspective from Japan

Clashing Parties: Could the Dispute over Japan's Role in the Afghan War Prompt a General Election?

 

Cultural News, December 2007

 

 

By Motoaki Kamiura, Military Analyst

Translated by Alan Gleason

 

   Japan's Parliament is currently in the midst of a heated dispute over a new Special Anti-Terrorism Law designed to allow Japan to resume refueling operations in the Indian Ocean. Until the previous law expired on Nov. 1, the Maritime Self-Defense Force (MSDF) was refueling ships belonging to multinational forces in the region, ostensibly to assist in reestablishing security in Afghanistan.

 

   However, the two leading parties -- the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) -- are at loggerheads over the legislation, and speculation is rife that the standoff could trigger the dissolution of the House of Representatives (Lower House) and a "general" (Lower House) election, the first since 2005.

 

   The DPJ, which won a majority of seats in the House of Councillors (Upper House) election last summer, opposes resumption of the refueling operations. Party leader Ichiro Ozawa argues that SDF support of the Afghan war is unconstitutional because the war was launched by the United States for its own self-defense. The government currently interprets the Japanese Constitution as permitting Japan to defend itself but not to support other nations, even allies, in defending themselves.

 

    When President Bush attacked Afghanistan in late 2001, he argued that the war was in self-defense because the ruling Taliban government was sheltering Al-Qaeda, which the U.S. held responsible for the terrorist attacks of September 11.

 

   In the name of aiding in the security effort in Afghanistan, Japan subsequently passed a law approving the supply of fuel to coalition ships in the Indian Ocean. The MSDF conducted the refueling operations for six years until the law expired in the face of opposition to its extension from the DPJ.

 

   When former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe suddenly resigned in September, he cited his inability to get the refueling law extended as the U.S. had requested. Just after meeting with President Bush on November 16, the new Prime Minister, Yasuo Fukuda, declared that resumption of the refueling operations was the most critical issue facing Japan.

 

   Meanwhile, the resurgent DPJ, smelling an opportunity to seize the reins of government from the long-dominant LDP, wants to force the dissolution of the Lower House and hold a general election as soon as possible. The new refueling law has become a pawn in the struggle between the two parties.

 

    The most likely scenario goes like this. The LDP has already forced the new refueling bill through the Lower House, but the DPJ will refuse to bring it to a vote in the Upper House. If the bill does not come up for a vote in sixty days, it can still become law if brought to a second vote in the Lower House and passed by a two-thirds majority, which the LDP coalition still has in the Lower House. But if the LDP does that, the DPJ will submit a censure motion against Fukuda in the Upper House, thereby compelling him to dissolve the Lower House for a general election.

 

   If that is indeed what happens, the election could take place as early as mid-January next year.

 

Motoaki Kamiura is a Tokyo-based military analyst. When the world is in crisis, he appears frequently on national television programs.

  

 Alan Gleason is an editor, writer, and Japanese-English translator. He lives in Tokyo.